Greece and the larger European Union community are awaiting the International Monetary Fund’s proposals and
observations on the country’s adjustment program, which are expected to affect
Greece’s direction moving forward.
The report is likely to echo views put forth by Athens,
particularly on debt relief and primary budget surplus targets, which the IMF
considers unrealistic. IMF demands to address these factors, which are likely to be
more contentious with a Greek coalition government that is
not likely to agree to IMF measures. The fund’s measures include a lower annual tax-free threshold and
cuts on social security for some pensioners like those who worked for
state-run enterprises.
The IMF’s report is likely to be a continuation of its
position that falls between Greek leftists positions and those held by the
country’s European creditors.
The fund’s forecast for the country’s economy includes
marginal increases in GDP through 2018, with a growth rate of 2.7 percent in
2017 and 2.6 percent in 2018. In 2019, the fund expects that rate to drop to
2.4 percent and fall to 2 percent in 2020. The IMF predicts a similar trend
for private consumption, which hit 0.8 percent in 2016 and is expected to grow
in 2017 to 1.5 percent before a slight dip in 2018 to 1.4 percent. A downward trend will occur from 2019 to 2020, when it will fall to 1.2 percent and 1
percent, respectively. Public sector consumption at 0.7 percent in 2016 will remain steady
at 0.5 percent in 2017 and 2018 before rising to 2 percent in 2019 and hitting
1.7 percent in 2020.
