Following a recent Eurogroup meeting, HSBC believes that
Athens’ delayed second review of the Greek program could be concluded by the
next meeting on Feb. 20, a move European and Greek leaders agree is
in the best interest of all parties.
The conclusion of the second review could be conducted under
the headline “Greek bailout negotiations” and would ensure that an agreement
is reached before the end of February, putting it ahead of all of Europe’s
upcoming 2017 elections. Greek and European leaders have long been in consensus
that concluding the second review will be beneficial to all, although it may
hinge on the IMF’s confirmation that it will maintain its role in the third
bailout program.
HSBC analysts project that if the IMF makes a commitment to
future participation in the Greek program, the Eurogroup will find that
adequate to approve scheduled bailout loan tranches for Greece.
HSBC does not anticipate that the European
Central Bank’s quantitative easing program will include Greek bonds
immediately, with the group projecting their arrival in the program for this
summer at the earliest.
