Anticipating the future is always difficult, but more so when dealing with the economy and politics, Gergk Kremer, chief economist at Commerzbank, said.
“Entrepreneurs and managers should (make) daily decisions for the future, based on forecasts and the need,” Kremer said.
Although data is commonly used in economic forecasts, it is not foolproof and errors happen, Kremer said.
“There are many reasons for these errors,” he said. “These are forecasts based on assumptions, yet the price of oil or the euro-dollar rate predictions are proven wrong.”
Professor Timo Volmerchoizer, economics forecasting expert, said unforeseen events such as Brexit and Trump’s presidential win greatly affect both political and economic predictions, including how those events can impact the Balkan States.
“When the first predictions came for 2015 to 2017, they did not include the impact of Brexit and Trump’s election because no one expected these,” Volmerchoizer said.
He said recent forecasts were changed to include these events.
“There will always be future events that surprise us in one way or another,” he said.
